WEBVTT 00:00:00.300 --> 00:00:28.366 [Upbeat music] 00:00:28.366 --> 00:00:34.499 >>Speaker: WPSAPS Unit 4, making a benchmark scenario. 00:00:34.500 --> 00:00:40.533 Objectives for this section is we are going to create prevention planning 00:00:40.533 --> 00:00:41.466 scenarios. 00:00:42.400 --> 00:00:47.366 The main focus of this video slide PowerPoint will be to 00:00:47.366 --> 00:00:50.432 learn how to create a benchmark scenario by accepting WPSAPS 00:00:50.433 --> 00:00:54.399 algorithm with the highest effectiveness rate and 00:00:54.400 --> 00:00:58.200 then generate, review and edit prevention action sets. 00:01:00.633 --> 00:01:08.633 So once you put in your budget, your admin hours, worker hours, 00:01:08.633 --> 00:01:13.933 and the budget for the prevention program, you created 00:01:13.933 --> 00:01:20.866 a scenario and you'll come to this page and I quickly want to 00:01:20.866 --> 00:01:24.099 go over what this page means. 00:01:24.300 --> 00:01:28.166 So of course you have your scenario names and then you have 00:01:28.166 --> 00:01:31.932 the worker hours which is brought forth from the data you 00:01:31.933 --> 00:01:35.999 put in and then the labor cost, any kind of support budget and 00:01:36.000 --> 00:01:36.966 then the total. 00:01:36.966 --> 00:01:39.832 So you know how much the total program will cost. 00:01:40.700 --> 00:01:46.900 And then we're going to talk about total fires prevented, the 00:01:46.900 --> 00:01:52.400 GA-AS SA-AS and what a scenario completed actually means. 00:01:53.233 --> 00:01:59.366 So going back to total fires prevented in WPSAPS, we are 00:01:59.366 --> 00:02:08.999 using a 25 year data set and total fires prevented represents 00:02:09.000 --> 00:02:11.333 the number of additional fires that the model predicts would 00:02:11.333 --> 00:02:17.566 have occurred if no prevention actions were implemented at that 00:02:17.566 --> 00:02:19.099 management unit. 00:02:20.300 --> 00:02:27.133 It this does not mean it reduces the number of fires from the 00:02:27.133 --> 00:02:33.233 current average due to implementing, but this predicts 00:02:33.233 --> 00:02:38.199 on top of that- on top of the yearly average. 00:02:40.933 --> 00:02:48.533 And again, it's the 25-year data range, so this number represents 00:02:48.533 --> 00:02:50.933 on top of the average. 00:02:52.300 --> 00:02:54.900 So what is a GS-AS? 00:02:56.366 --> 00:02:59.499 It is general actions action sets. 00:02:59.933 --> 00:03:05.599 So general actions will be assigned prevention hours based 00:03:05.600 --> 00:03:10.966 on how many hours you dedicated to the general actions. 00:03:12.166 --> 00:03:17.432 And currently, if you look at the bottom line there the demo, 00:03:17.433 --> 00:03:22.999 it has a zero out of one because the general actions, again those 00:03:23.000 --> 00:03:27.800 hours will have an effect on the entire management unit. 00:03:28.500 --> 00:03:34.766 Now the SA-AS, the specific action, action sets are those 00:03:34.766 --> 00:03:41.032 specific actions for dedicated prevention units that you 00:03:41.033 --> 00:03:41.899 created. 00:03:42.300 --> 00:03:44.933 So in this case, it shows a zero out of three. 00:03:45.100 --> 00:03:49.633 We created 3 prevention units at the very beginning when we did 00:03:49.633 --> 00:03:50.766 our assessments. 00:03:51.166 --> 00:03:56.499 So we're going to assign hours and prevention actions to each 00:03:56.500 --> 00:03:59.066 one of those prevention units. 00:04:00.900 --> 00:04:05.866 And then scenario completed is when you finally assigned all 00:04:05.866 --> 00:04:11.166 your hours and then the table is complete and you have those two 00:04:11.166 --> 00:04:14.432 check marks and the GA-AS and the SA-AS. 00:04:14.800 --> 00:04:17.900 And then you also have a total fires prevented. 00:04:18.733 --> 00:04:21.166 That is when you know your [indiscernible] scenario's complete. 00:04:21.600 --> 00:04:25.633 So here on this page, you can see that there are four 00:04:25.633 --> 00:04:30.233 different prevention plans and four different scenarios in in 00:04:30.233 --> 00:04:32.366 various states of completion. 00:04:33.300 --> 00:04:40.000 So this is what a table would look like and this is how you 00:04:40.000 --> 00:04:46.400 can also cross reference, see effectiveness of different 00:04:46.400 --> 00:04:47.533 scenarios. 00:04:47.533 --> 00:04:49.799 What if I do this versus what if I do this? 00:04:49.800 --> 00:04:53.633 How does it change that total fires prevented and we'll 00:04:53.633 --> 00:04:56.133 go over that more here in just a moment. 00:04:57.733 --> 00:05:00.733 So why do we need to have a benchmark scenario? 00:05:01.133 --> 00:05:05.999 So a benchmark scenario is the accepting of the algorithm of 00:05:06.000 --> 00:05:06.700 WPSAPS. 00:05:07.000 --> 00:05:12.733 So everything that you put into the program so far is now being 00:05:12.733 --> 00:05:15.299 generated into effectiveness. 00:05:15.900 --> 00:05:22.566 So in the end, the data, the science based research and the 00:05:22.566 --> 00:05:28.632 hours that you put in, it's going to take the human cause 00:05:28.633 --> 00:05:35.199 starts that you select that you want to focus on, find all the 00:05:35.200 --> 00:05:41.466 prevention actions that help reduce those human cost starts 00:05:41.466 --> 00:05:46.466 and assign prevention hours to those and units. 00:05:46.966 --> 00:05:52.866 So ultimately you're having the best case scenario if you 00:05:52.866 --> 00:05:59.099 complete the plan in full, the benchmark of regardless which 00:05:59.100 --> 00:06:05.133 pathway you choose, worker hours or budget, we'll have the 00:06:05.133 --> 00:06:10.933 highest fires prevented because of selecting the highest 00:06:10.933 --> 00:06:15.833 effectiveness rates for each prevention action. 00:06:17.566 --> 00:06:22.499 So down the road, we will do a customized scenario where we 00:06:22.500 --> 00:06:26.800 change hours, change units, change actions, because 00:06:26.800 --> 00:06:31.666 sometimes the computer does not fully understand that, for 00:06:31.666 --> 00:06:36.766 example, I may not appear in court three times or prepare for 00:06:36.766 --> 00:06:39.132 court appearance three times. 00:06:39.533 --> 00:06:41.566 That is something I cannot guarantee. 00:06:42.033 --> 00:06:45.066 So I would want to reallocate those hours elsewhere. 00:06:45.200 --> 00:06:49.500 They're just taking the highest effectiveness rate of each 00:06:49.500 --> 00:06:51.533 action for the best results. 00:06:51.933 --> 00:06:54.833 So you will have to customize, but it's good to know your 00:06:54.833 --> 00:06:55.333 benchmark. 00:06:57.500 --> 00:06:58.600 So how do we do that? 00:06:58.933 --> 00:07:03.866 Well, you created a scenario already, either bench budget or 00:07:03.866 --> 00:07:04.999 workers hours. 00:07:05.333 --> 00:07:07.866 So you hit the load button on the right hand side there. 00:07:09.300 --> 00:07:14.466 Then very subtly there is a Gray bar that populates at the bottom 00:07:14.466 --> 00:07:16.632 and it'll have several tabs. 00:07:16.833 --> 00:07:20.233 It'll have general action, specific action and then primary 00:07:20.233 --> 00:07:20.599 causes. 00:07:22.133 --> 00:07:26.133 So with the general action, specific actions, to know which 00:07:26.133 --> 00:07:28.999 one you are in, it will be a lighter blue. 00:07:30.333 --> 00:07:36.966 So click on the general actions and then I need you to click on 00:07:36.966 --> 00:07:40.166 primary causes for the general. 00:07:41.400 --> 00:07:47.433 Then a new pop up box will populate on your screen and 00:07:47.433 --> 00:07:53.333 it'll have the primary causes for that management unit. 00:07:54.100 --> 00:08:00.400 So in this case, the top three causes are children and all the 00:08:00.400 --> 00:08:06.000 sub items underneath that miscellaneous and then arson. 00:08:07.100 --> 00:08:12.266 So there are other human cause starts, but these were the top 00:08:12.266 --> 00:08:12.766 three. 00:08:13.033 --> 00:08:17.833 Now with this section, you can choose up to three human starts. 00:08:17.833 --> 00:08:20.799 You want to focus on they. 00:08:20.800 --> 00:08:25.000 We don't want you guys focusing on all of them because then you 00:08:25.000 --> 00:08:28.033 can't target your messaging and your efforts. 00:08:28.033 --> 00:08:32.733 So you can select up to three, you can select one, you can 00:08:32.733 --> 00:08:35.433 select two, but three is the max. 00:08:35.733 --> 00:08:37.966 Now, you cannot select natural. 00:08:38.433 --> 00:08:44.099 Natural includes lightning volcanoes 'cause they're not 00:08:44.100 --> 00:08:50.133 human causes, we cannot prevent those items from happening. 00:08:50.533 --> 00:08:55.766 So, but it's in the spread table in in the table there so that 00:08:55.766 --> 00:09:00.799 you can see how many starts in that 20 year average, 25 year 00:09:00.800 --> 00:09:02.766 average that does occur. 00:09:04.166 --> 00:09:07.866 So now again, just look up to three. 00:09:09.100 --> 00:09:24.166 And then at the top you hit generate action plan, so the 00:09:24.166 --> 00:09:27.766 general action and specific action plan layout. 00:09:27.766 --> 00:09:32.666 So we just did the general action part, but these this next 00:09:32.666 --> 00:09:35.532 step is the same, the same layout. 00:09:35.533 --> 00:09:37.166 So I'm going to explain it once here. 00:09:37.700 --> 00:09:41.666 So the program's algorithm uses the effectiveness we talked 00:09:41.666 --> 00:09:42.366 about that. 00:09:42.800 --> 00:09:50.300 So on the top picture there, if you look, it has the category 00:09:50.300 --> 00:09:56.766 administration and it's a GA 41 general action number 41 and 41 00:09:56.766 --> 00:10:02.832 represents prepare revised wildfire prevention plan. 00:10:02.833 --> 00:10:06.133 So that's the name of that, that unit, that action. 00:10:07.033 --> 00:10:10.366 And then it shows effectiveness. 00:10:11.200 --> 00:10:14.200 The percentage of effectiveness is 51. 00:10:14.833 --> 00:10:18.099 So this column is color-coded. 00:10:18.366 --> 00:10:24.299 So green being the highest effectiveness rating and all the 00:10:24.300 --> 00:10:28.233 way down to red in effectiveness. 00:10:28.633 --> 00:10:34.199 Then in the action plan going back to that GA 41, the GA 41 is 00:10:34.200 --> 00:10:35.233 flagged red. 00:10:36.300 --> 00:10:43.866 This indicates that most, if not all prevention plans need to 00:10:43.866 --> 00:10:47.032 have this element in them. 00:10:47.033 --> 00:10:51.333 So, it's just a visual cue for when you're going through to 00:10:51.333 --> 00:10:55.733 make sure you have items that are typically in a prevention 00:10:55.733 --> 00:10:56.066 plan. 00:10:56.566 --> 00:11:01.466 Now, it's not always 100%, maybe your plan differs a little bit, 00:11:01.466 --> 00:11:04.299 but it it's usually the guide, right? 00:11:04.800 --> 00:11:08.866 OK, so now let's talk about the workload factor. 00:11:09.600 --> 00:11:17.233 So the workload factor is hours. Hours to do that specific 00:11:17.233 --> 00:11:25.466 action, that action of prepare, revise wildfire prevention plan. 00:11:26.300 --> 00:11:30.166 Now if you go over and you look under units, it's one. 00:11:30.766 --> 00:11:42.099 So this is saying to do 1 unit, which is 24 hours in length in 00:11:42.100 --> 00:11:43.000 time. 00:11:44.800 --> 00:11:49.300 So now if you go down to the bottom picture, we're going to 00:11:49.300 --> 00:11:50.633 look at the GA 35. 00:11:51.033 --> 00:11:54.933 The GA 35 has a 91% effectiveness rate and that's 00:11:54.933 --> 00:11:58.566 implementing fire restrictions, closure plans. 00:11:58.700 --> 00:12:03.200 That's the implementation of those in this plan. 00:12:03.200 --> 00:12:06.033 It says you will do that 18 times in the year. 00:12:06.766 --> 00:12:10.632 Again, we're just accepting, so don't get hung up on the 00:12:10.633 --> 00:12:11.599 numbers yet, OK? 00:12:12.500 --> 00:12:17.300 It says you're going to do 18 units of those at 16 hours a 00:12:17.300 --> 00:12:17.766 piece. 00:12:18.800 --> 00:12:25.466 So 16 * 18 is 288 hours would be dedicated for this action. 00:12:29.133 --> 00:12:32.166 Again, I just really want to stress that a benchmark scenario 00:12:32.166 --> 00:12:35.032 accepts the outputs and we're not going to change anything 00:12:35.033 --> 00:12:35.499 right now. 00:12:36.533 --> 00:12:40.299 It provides the highest effectiveness outcome, even 00:12:40.300 --> 00:12:44.066 though some actions may be impossible to meet or 00:12:44.066 --> 00:12:46.166 practical or are impractical. 00:12:48.566 --> 00:12:57.666 And then you hit save action set. 00:12:57.666 --> 00:12:59.966 So that was for the general actions. 00:13:00.433 --> 00:13:03.133 Now for the specific actions, we're going to do the exact same 00:13:03.133 --> 00:13:04.366 thing we did for the general. 00:13:04.366 --> 00:13:06.032 We got to go through all the steps. 00:13:06.300 --> 00:13:10.766 So the first thing you need to do is you need to hit that 00:13:10.766 --> 00:13:15.599 specific action and then you're going to have a drop-down box, 00:13:15.600 --> 00:13:20.200 that white box there on the top picture here you select the 00:13:20.200 --> 00:13:24.633 prevention unit you want to find your primary causes for. 00:13:25.033 --> 00:13:30.833 So you will have to do this each time for each prevention unit. 00:13:31.933 --> 00:13:34.266 So this case, look, we're going to do the Ag lands first. 00:13:34.800 --> 00:13:40.166 So you hit the down arrow, you select Ag lands, 00:13:40.166 --> 00:13:41.832 it'll turn orange. 00:13:42.400 --> 00:13:47.800 And then you hit primary causes, and then you select the human 00:13:47.800 --> 00:13:53.166 start you want to focus on and hit generate action plan, just 00:13:53.166 --> 00:13:56.299 like you did in the general actions. 00:13:57.400 --> 00:14:03.066 Then you hit save action set, because we're going to accept 00:14:03.066 --> 00:14:05.299 what the algorithm says. 00:14:07.033 --> 00:14:10.566 And then you go back to the drop down arrow, select the next 00:14:10.566 --> 00:14:14.132 prevention unit, make sure it's highlighted orange, which in 00:14:14.133 --> 00:14:15.799 this case would be West side. 00:14:16.500 --> 00:14:20.400 And then you select your top three causes, hit, generate 00:14:20.400 --> 00:14:24.533 specific action plan, and then hit save again because we're 00:14:24.533 --> 00:14:26.166 accepting the algorithm. 00:14:26.533 --> 00:14:33.699 Then you do it one last time for the last unit that I have, 00:14:33.700 --> 00:14:37.566 because remember I have three of them and that one is the 00:14:37.566 --> 00:14:38.299 mission. 00:14:38.700 --> 00:14:44.200 So select mission prevention unit, hit primary causes, select 00:14:44.200 --> 00:14:49.633 your primary causes, generate the specific action plan, and 00:14:49.633 --> 00:14:51.399 then again hit save. 00:15:00.300 --> 00:15:05.933 And then once you hit save and your general actions are done 00:15:05.933 --> 00:15:11.366 and your specific actions are done, it brings you back to 00:15:11.366 --> 00:15:12.366 this table. 00:15:12.966 --> 00:15:17.299 You can visually see that both of those are checked off and 00:15:17.300 --> 00:15:21.233 then on the right hand side it says scenario complete. 00:15:24.200 --> 00:15:31.833 So now reviewing this example, the top line there is you got 00:15:31.833 --> 00:15:34.333 your hours, your labor, your support, your totals. 00:15:34.966 --> 00:15:41.766 Now this top line says on top of the average of that 25 year 00:15:41.766 --> 00:15:48.099 span, 139 fires would be prevented on top of the average 00:15:48.100 --> 00:15:51.866 if the plan is completed in full. 00:15:54.933 --> 00:16:01.066 And then later down on the down the road, this table right here 00:16:01.066 --> 00:16:06.966 in a different unit that we'll talk about is then translated 00:16:06.966 --> 00:16:08.699 into cost savings.